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Gold is at a watershed...what's next?
By Mohammed Qais Abdulghani
Published on April 6, 2025 at 10:22 AM
Gold is at a watershed...what's next?
Gold Spot USD
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Gold is at a critical stage that may determine its future performance. One step can change the entire situation. Written by: Economic expert Muhammad Qais Abdul Ghani
In this week's episode of Gold Code, we will focus on the economic and geopolitical dynamics that directly affect the gold market. We will analyze price movements to determine whether the market is about to usher in a new round of historical highs or is on the verge of a downward correction. First: Economic and Geopolitical Analysis
At the beginning of this week, the market is looking forward to key US data, the most notable of which is the ADP Non-Farm Employment Report (NFP), which is expected to be released at 3:30 pm Mecca time on Friday.
The NFP report, along with a series of other economic data, is considered to be the main potential driver of gold prices. However, the problem is not just about the data. Geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine have escalated again, exacerbating market uncertainty and supporting demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Second: Gold Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, gold prices remain above the key support level of $3,260/oz, which strengthens the market's positive tone and opens the door to target levels of $3,400/oz, $3,500/oz, and even a record high near $3,600/oz if support conditions exist.
However, all of this depends on the upcoming US jobs report, which will determine the direction of the market in the coming days. Third: Current trading opportunities:
If the $3,400 level is breached and closed cleanly on the 15-minute time frame, one can consider buying.
If this condition is met, the short-term target levels are $3,480 and $3,600.
The stop loss is set below the breakout level (i.e., below $3,400).
Advice for gold investors:
Long-term investors (7 to 10 years) can buy from current levels without worrying about any temporary pullback.
Gold remains a valuable asset and source of returns during times of global economic turmoil.
Short-term speculators:
It is recommended to wait and see, and do not rush to buy unless it breaks through 3,400 points.
If the gold price fails to break through 3,400 points and retests 3,260 points, you need to pay close attention to the price trend.
If it breaks through: wait and see.
If there is a strong upward rebound: it means a new buying opportunity.
Fourth point: Advice for gold holders
If you are an investor and your investment cycle is coming to an end, you can take profits and prepare for new investment opportunities.
However, if you need cash urgently, you can sell in small quantities as needed.
If you do not need cash, it is better to wait and see and hold gold, especially when the price is close to the historical high.
Fifth question: Interactive question
Do you expect the gold price to break through the $3,260 mark again and start a downward trend? Or will the upcoming data, especially the non-farm payrolls report, push gold prices to new all-time highs?
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